Friday Roundtable: Biggest NBA Jumps and Falls

BDD's Friday Roundtable is a weekly discussion among a group of our writers on a trending NBA or college basketball topic.

Cleveland's Kyrie Irving abuses Brooklyn Nets coach Jason Kidd. (via NBA Offseason)

This week's question: Which NBA team will make the biggest rise or fall in 2013-14?

Chris S.:
Here's a wild prediction for you: the Cavs will make the 2nd round of the playoffs...by beating the Nets in the first round.

Cleveland has an MVP candidate in Kyrie Irving, but it's the improvement from Tristan Thompson and Dion Waiters that will help them get to the next step. Jarrett Jack is an excellent fit as a crunch-time combo guard, and there are a lot of talented bigs (Andrew Bynum, Andy Varejao, Anthony Bennett, Thompson and Tyler Zeller) to give Mike Brown more flexibility through the long regular season.

The Nets may be the best team money of curious origins can buy, but I don't think they'll be one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. There are the very highest of expectations for this group, which will need to gel a talented, yet uninspiring core of Deron Williams, Brook Lopez and Joe Johnson with...the Celtics' old core of Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce. Jason Terry was thrown in as a parting gift, because headbands are the new black. I'm not optimistic for this team's chances of finding an identity and learning how to play together under head coach Lawrence Frank - sorry, I meant Jason Kidd. Unless Deron Williams transforms from coach killer into a leader who can win over both cliques AND find enough shots to keep everyone happy, this could be a very emo season in Brooklyn. Too many cantankerous cooks in the kitchen.


Zach:
The Detroit Pistons don't come with a reputation this season, not that anyone remembers away -- the team had maintenance work-done over the summer.

Though Jose Calderon's ability to play, composed, at the point and shooting guard positions will be missed, however; Chauncey Billups returns Detroit with the same aura that earned him Finals MVP after leading the Pistons to an NBA Championship in 2004. His lack of ability is compensated by leadership, his production beyond mentoring will come from behind the arc, he's a 39 percent lifetime shooter from three-point range. Billups was 4 of 5 from 'distance' in the season opener against the Wizards, he had 16 points in 31 minutes. 

The Pistons added a turbo with Brandon Jennings, reputation aside -- he's talented. Essentially swapping a third-year player for the man responsible for giving Earth the phrase "Bucks in Six" isn't a raw deal. Knight averaged one turnover more per 48 minutes last season, while Jennings ranked 16th in assists per game at the end of the year. Buckle up because he's the guy behind the wheel. Josh Smith who may attempt to navigate without control all season, but his game works at high speeds much like the rest of the Pistons. Playing aside Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond, the addition of "J-Smoove" completes a frontcourt that will look to score in transition -- a lot. 

With a new coach (Maurice Cheeks), new faces and newly-found optimistic expectations --the Pistons in the postseason would be the biggest jump, I believe, a team may make this season.

Alex:
Numerically, the Cleveland Cavaliers will make the biggest jump of any team in the NBA. Point guard and dribbling savant Kyrie Irving was sporadically injured and the front court production was largely ravaged by the loss of Anderson Varejao after the veteran big man began the season on a tear, leading to the Cavs finishing last season with a lowly 24-58 record — third worst in the league. That won't be the case in 2013-14, particularly if some of the health issues ebb. A revamped roster has Varejao backed up by Andrew Bynum, who was considered by some to be the NBA's best center just two years; one of Golden State's bench spark plugs from last season, Jarrett Jack, and Matthew Dellavedova, an undrafted rookie playmaker out of St. Mary's, offer depth behind Irving; and Earl Clark is starting at small forward after showing flashes of previously unquantified talent with the Los Angeles Lakers in 2012. First-rounder Anthony Bennett should be able to provide bench scoring and, with Irving set to officially ascend to superstar status as back court sidekick Dion Waiters and power forward Tristan Thompson continue to develop, the Cavs can legitimately be projected into the playoffs as high up as the sixth seed. Need proof? Cleveland's already beaten a team considered to be a top-five talent in the Eastern Conference in the Brooklyn Nets squad that made one of the splashiest roster rearrangements over the summer.

The "biggest fall" team is tougher to predict, but the Denver Nuggets seem ripe to drop down the standings. A No. 3 seed in the Western Conference in the previous playoffs, there are numerous departures that stand starkly in contrast to an "addition by subtraction" argument. George Karl may not have a championship on his head coaching resume, but his frenetic offensive system was the perfect fit for speedy point guard Ty Lawson, with his upside being perpetually realized. The abilities of young, athletic players such as JaVale McGee and Kennth Faried could also be maximized in such a system. New head coach Brian Shaw worked in an historically rich culture with the Lakers, but the transition will be abrupt. Factor in the loss of one of the league's premier defenders and a top 10 or 15 overall asset in Andre Iguodala, then the rehabbing of small forward Danilo Gallinari ruling the Italian out until at least December, and the Nuggets could be in store for a long season.

Kyle:
I'm also of the mindset that Cleveland will make a huge jump this season, but seeing as we've covered the Cavs well in this piece, I like the Minnesota Timberwolves this season. I know, this is a risky pick seeing as some accident will happen throughout the course of the season to injure at least three players. Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio will break a rib giving a chest bump. That's just the way it's been. I think, and hope for their sake, this year will be different. If Love's 31-point, 17-rebound performance in the season opener is any indication, a massive season is in store for him. Rubio will continue to make plays and keep the offense moving, Corey Brewer can knock down shots and J.J. Barea and Alex Shved are more than capable of preventing a letup with Rubio is on the bench. The addition of Kevin Martin is also looking like a offseason move that will pay off. Martin didn't have a great shooting night against the Magic (23 points on 6-19 shooting), but found a way to get to the line (9-9) and is another weapon on the wing to give Love more space inside.

It's been a building process in Minnesota. It was just four and three years ago that Minnesota won 15 and 17 games respectively. The Timberwolves were 20 games under .500 last season, but the 31 wins shows improvement. This could be the season all the pieces come together and Minnesota finds itself closer to that .500 record.

Shawn:
After toying with mediocrity for years (and at times being downright dreadful) I’ve got the Milwaukee Bucks taking a big step forward. Yes, the Bucks made the playoffs last season, but this was not a team ready to make a postseason run. However, I think Milwaukee is primed and ready to do just that. I love what they’ve done, shaking up the personnel. I’ve been a huge O.J. Mayo fan since he entered the league, and I think the Bucks are the perfect team for him. Mayo’s best years have come as a starter, averaging 18.5, 17.5, and 15.3 points per game in his seasons as a starter. Coming off the bench, Mayo has only averaged 11.3 and 12.6 points per game. Mayo is still only 25 years old, and has his best years in front of him. Going back to a team where he is not only a starter, but one of, if not the, primary scoring option will only help both Mayo and the Bucks reach greatness. 

The addition of Caron Butler is another I think the Bucks did well to make. While Butler’s production has been on a gradual decline the past couple of seasons, what he will bring to Milwaukee is some much needed leadership. The Bucks are a young squad (only three players on the roster are over 30) and having a quality, veteran presence the younger players can look up to is an invaluable piece to have. If the Bucks young front court of Ekpe Udoh, John Henson, and Larry Sanders can continue to develop and take strides forward, and point guard Brandon Knight can begin to realize his potential, Milwaukee is going to be a handful for the rest of the league.

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Michael Beasley's Roller Coaster Career; What's Next?

Michael Beasley has gone from the No. 2 overall pick to being released by the Phoenix Suns. (nba.com)

Michael Beasley was working his way toward being a veteran in the NBA, already with five seasons under his belt and only 24 years old.

Yet in a day that veteran status is in question as the Phoenix Suns, Beasley's third team since being drafted by Miami, released the troubled forward Tuesday. Beasley was recently arrested on a charge of suspicion of marijuana, just another time when the drug has gotten him in trouble with the league.

Even without the drug charge, Beasley is dropping off as a player. Just two seasons removed from the best year of his career, where he averaged 19.2 points and 5.6 rebounds per game for Minnesota, last season those numbers dropped down to a career low 10.1 points and 3.8 rebounds per game.

The question now is if a team will give him another chance? It's hard to imagine Beasley without a job in the league after five years, mainly because of the hype around him entering the league. This is also proof of how far he's fallen.

To be far, he hasn't been a Darko Milicic-type bust. Other former No. 2 overall picks have fallen harder and faster. Beasley has still put up very respectable numbers, so it's hard to call a player like him a bust.

But remember back to 2008 when Beasley was drafted. He was a national phenom at Kansas State and was expected to be an all-star in the NBA. Just look at the list of players he was drafted ahead of: O.J. Mayo, Russell Westbrook, Kevin Love, Brook and Robin Lopez and Roy Hibbert are a few. It was Beasley and Derrick Rose at the top, and the conversation was who would have a better career.

The biggest disappointment with Beasley is his poor play and inability to stay with a team seems to be more a fault of his, both with the drug use and attitude, than outside factors. He hasn't suffered any major career-setback injuries that have taken out other top picks. He didn't have trouble adjusting to the game like a European transfer such as Milicic.

In fact, Beasley proved he could be a successful scorer in the league. His first three years were a steady rise into what looked to be a very good career. But Beasley hasn't been able to stay out of his own way, and his drop off in production from the 2010-11 season to last season makes it more difficult for teams to put up with the marijuana charges.

Beasley has had plenty of ups and downs already in his young NBA career. It's now time to see where the Michael Beasley roller coaster takes him next.

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Kevin Love's Broken Hand Could Break Hearts

Kevin Love's injury leaves the Timberwolves in need of production. (Getty Images)

This was supposed to be the season "it" finally happened for the Minnesota Timberwolves. After 16 seasons, the team was projected to reach the playoffs again and, depending on seeding, maybe even play in multiple rounds.

That scenario — although not ruled out completely — is now in jeopardy with the news that All-Star forward and Olympic gold medalist Kevin Love is expected to miss 6-8 weeks after breaking two bones in his right hand during a pre-practice workout at his condo Wednesday morning.

There is a lot of work to reconcile the absence of one player. Love is top-five in the NBA in scoring; free throws attempted and made; every rebounding category; and player efficiency rating. He's also fourth in win shares, just behind the likes of Finals duelers LeBron James and Kevin Durant. CBSSports.com's Royce Young further notes how integral Love is to all aspects of T-Wolves basketball:

"Love has emerged as a premier player, averaging 26.0 points and 13.3 rebounds per game last season. He's expanded his game to become a deadly 3-point shooter while maintaining his impressive work on the glass. The Wolves are essentially losing 26.5 percent of the points per game and more than 30 percent of their rebounding production."

Essentially, Love is a really good basketball player. The injury to his shooting hand comes at an unfortunate time for the T-Wolves not only because there is never a good instance for a small market team's undisputed superstar to miss games, but because there is no definite timetable for Ricky Rubio's return after tearing the ACL in his left knee during a game in March.

Technically, last season was supposed to be the Timberwolves' first chance to break back into the postseason, and that very realistic possibility was sliced apart along with Rubio's crucial joint. This year, the healthy remainders of the team will have to open the season and compete for one or two months before either player rejoins them on the court.

The long side of 6-8 weeks is nearly 20 games, and as Young points out, is nearly 25 percent of the NBA season. Before Love can conceivably come back, the T-Wolves play away games against the Brooklyn Nets, Indiana Pacers and Dallas Mavericks during a four-game road trip.

If the two bones — those in his hand below the middle and ring fingers, or third and fourth metacarpals, to be exact — take a full eight weeks to heal, Love could also miss road dates against the Los Angeles Clippers, Philadelphia 76ers, Boston Celtics and the retooled New Orleans Hornets, plus two contests against the always-improving Denver Nuggets, and the playoff-hopeful Golden State Warriors and Milwaukee Bucks.

What good news is to be had resides in Minnesota's new-look roster, a rebuild that Love's offseason criticism surely helped along. Former All-Star Brandon Roy and experienced Russian combo guard Alexey Shved, in his first NBA season, add backcourt depth. Andrei Kirilenko, a teammate of Shved's on the bronze-winning Russian national squad, can add firepower and strong defense at the wing. Greg Steimsma and all-around hard worker Lou Amundson are new additions to a frontcourt that already includes second-year pro Derrick Williams, who has the opportunity to grow his game and become a high caliber player as Love sits in street clothes.

Whether or not these guys — plus the incumbent players and minus Michael Beasley using over one-quarter of all possessions during his playing time — can collectively make up for Love's absence is debatable, but not likely.

Minnesota's playoff push does not die with this injury, but I wish godspeed to the Timberwolves who have to find a way to win without two leaders for a significant period — and to Love and Rubio's repaired body parts if the losses outweigh the wins when either is ready to play.


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Kirilenko's Worth It, But Complicates Deep Frontcourt

The Timberwolves are planning for more celebrating after a busy offseason. (Getty Images)

When I heard the Minnesota Timberwolves were signing Andrei Kirilenko to a contract worth $10 million per year, I couldn’t help but laugh. Kirilenko hasn’t played in the NBA for a year and wasn’t doing all that well before he left. Also, it’s my gut reaction to laugh at anything David Kahn does because at this point, I just assume it’s something silly. But it seems like now, just as I did when Ricky Rubio started playing, I might be going back on my words.

Let’s start with his work in Europe. He signed with CSKA Moscow during the lockout. Something about going to his home country must have rejuvenated him because he ended the season with both the Euroleague MVP and Defensive Player of the Year awards.

After Euroleague was over, he continued his multinational dominance by leading the Russian national team to a bronze medal in the Olympics.

He tallied 20 points and 8 rebounds in the bronze medal match against Argentina; he scored 19 points against Brazil; and got 19 points and 13 rebounds against Lithuania. The best part about Kirilenko's game was the way he looked. He was creating his own shot and not just settling on spot-up jumpers. He was playing the energetic and stifling defense that he originally became famous for, and best of all, he just looked confident.

Kirilenko is 31 now and while he may not be getting better physically, it looks like he’s back mentally. He should be a good fit next to Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio (when he returns). He will also be playing next to his Russian teammate Alexey Shved. The only downside to this move is the possible logjam it creates at the forward position. I’m not sure if Kahn knows that you need more than just forwards and point guards to win games. The team still has Kevin Love and Derrick Williams, they traded for Chase Budinger and drafted Robbie Hummel, a small forward out of Purdue. In addition to them, they also have Dante Cunningham and Anthony Tolliver on their roster.


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NBA, Players Need To Put Greed Aside And Stay With Olympics

(ibtimes.com)

By far the most popular athletes on the most popular team in the 2012 Olympics may not be back in four years.


It would be another example of greed and money ruling sports, and it would be a shame.


Pride has been restored to the USA Olympic Basketball team, where the game’s biggest superstars now care about winning gold again and are so dominant the task looks relatively easy. But Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban wonders why the NBA is letting the Olympics make a huge profit while using its athletes. Instead, Cuban suggested making Team USA a 23-and-under club again for the Olympics, while the NBA makes more money forming a “World Cup”-caliber tournament with their best players representing the U.S.


Cuban’s idea is based on the notion that this new “Basketball World Cup” will be wildly successful, because, after all, this is about money. Soccer’s World Cup is much more popular than Olympic soccer, but it also is a sport much older and established than basketball, with the most fans worldwide. This wouldn’t happen with a basketball tournament overnight. It would take years before the tournament built up enough viewership and credibility to make it worthwhile, even with the world’s greatest player. Plus, it would probably be a tournament held every four years, yet you wouldn’t want to compete in Olympic or soccer’s World Cup years, when the audience already has a love affair on TV.


Just look at the 2010 FIBA World Championships. Team USA consisted of NBA giants* Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Derrick Rose, Kevin Love, Andre Iguodala and so on, yet that worldwide basketball tournament is miles behind the coverage and attention of Olympic basketball this year. I haven’t heard players pass on the chance for an Olympic gold medal to rest and possibly win a FIBA World Championship trophy. It just doesn’t compare.


Having Team USA comprised of NBA stars is good for the Olympics and it is good for the sport. As I mentioned in a previous column on the Dream Team, having the best players at the Olympics can only strengthen the game internationally as more people watch how great the sport can be.


You already have the spotlight on the world’s biggest sporting stage, so why leave? For a little more cash? The NBA already has a stigma as being a greedy league, so instead take one month of every four years to put pride in your country and your sport ahead of your love of money.

* Giants now, not necessarily then. 


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Report: T-Wolves to Offer Brandon Roy Two-Year Contract

For all of his questionable roster decisions, Minnesota Timberwolves GM David Kahn tentatively redeemed himself by bringing in Ricky Rubio to form a one-two punch with Kevin Love. 

In addition to acquiring Chase Budinger in a trade with the Houston Rockets on Tuesday morning, Kahn is now poised to take the first step in adding another veritable competitor, as ESPN Radio 1500 Minneapolis reported Monday night that the T-Wolves plan to offer Brandon Roy a two-year contract. 

Brandon Roy to Minnesota? (Getty Images/Jonathan Ferrey)

This comes less than two weeks after Roy took to his former college teammate’sTwitter account and announced his intention to return to the pro game. Roy retired prior to the 2011-2012 season due to degenerative knees.

Bringing Roy into the fold would give the Wolves a reliable scoring guard to compliment Love’s bucket-filling forward role. But it’s been well documented that the cartilage missing in Roy’s knees is not something that can be grown back or replaced.

Given starter’s minutes, Roy averaged 22.6 and 21.5 points per game as a Portland Trailblazer in ’08-’09 and ’09-’10, respectively. When it became obvious that Roy’s knees could not support 37 minutes each contest, he took a diminished role, posting an average of 12.2 points during his nightly 28 minutes on the floor in ’10-‘11. Productive, yes, but at a price – Roy played in only 47 games that season, sometimes on an every-other-night basis.

Another issue that could make the Wolves’ offer a dream rather than a reality is that Roy has also been tentatively linked to the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers, according to the New York Post's Peter Vecsey. Of the three, only one team can contend for a championship immediately, and no one could blame Roy if he committed himself to chasing a ring now, given his circumstances.

Due to the amnesty clause the Blazers used on him, Roy is not constrained by the rules applicable to other free agents. He can talk to teams at his leisure, and take his time in signing anywhere.

Minnesota does hold a couple links to Roy, though. Swingman Martell Webster shared a Portland jersey with him as recently as 2010, and Wolves assistant coach Bill Bayno is apparently the driving force behind convincing head coach Rick Adelman and Khan that Roy is worth the risk.

A year off means Roy's joints have had time to rest, even with the training he's been doing in his hometown of Seattle to get back into NBA shape. The story of an All-Star career being derailed by injury is already set in stone, but it hasn't written out the possibility of a postscript to retirement.


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