Friday Roundtable: George Karl's Change of NBA Scenery

George Karl's COY trophy got altitude sickness, so he must move on. (David Zalubowski/AP)

BDD's Friday Roundtable is a weekly discussion among a group of our writers on a trending NBA or college basketball topic.

This week's question: The Denver Nuggets unexpectedly fired reigning NBA Coach of the Year George Karl on Thursday. With several head coaching jobs still open, whose bench will Karl sit on during the 2013-14 season?

Alex:
The Los Angeles Clippers. They keep getting ousted by the Memphis Grizzlies, but even first-round playoff appearances are better than the turmoil the franchise toiled in before. The Clippers must maintain the momentum they have gained over the past two seasons — something even owner Donald Sterling must know, even with his antiquated chants and general cringe-worthy-ness — and the best coach available to do that is Karl. He can instantly come in and make postseason appearances a reliable reality each spring and do it with tactics other than the "You decide, Chris Paul," plays of his predecessor, Vinny del Negro. That is, if Paul sticks with the franchise. Bringing in a decorated, veteran coach like Karl, who has already had much success in the Western Conference, could be a game-changer for Paul when he enters free agency. The point guard will have numerous legitimate suitors, but adding a head coach of Karl's ilk could sway him to stay alongside Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, if Paul believes in the direction of the franchise. If the Clippers can get Karl to sign on, that direction is up. 

Kyle:
An NBA Coach of the Year award was not enough to keep George Karl in Denver, mostly because the Nuggets made another early exit in the playoffs. It's not like they turned to crap when the regular season ended, they were just unfortunate to run into Stephen Curry and the high-powered Golden State in probably the best of the first-round series. The Clippers and Grizzlies should both be interested in the veteran coach, and while the allure of Los Angeles would be tough to pass up, I think Karl could wind up in Memphis. This is already a top-tier team in the Western Conference that has proven it can win a playoff series, without the media intensity he would receive in LA. Karl would have one of the best defense in the league, with enough pieces on offense in Mike Conley, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol for Karl to work with to turn a Grizzlies team that was No. 27 in scoring last year into one of the best offenses like he had in Denver.

Shawn:
George Karl shouldn’t get too comfortable with unemployment. It’s not often (or ever) that an NBA Coach of the Year becomes available in the same offseason he wins the award. As far as where Karl ends up, I think it comes down to The Brooklyn Nets. The Nets have a lot of talent with Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, and Brook Lopez. Brooklyn is a ready team to win now and has played in high-intensity playoff games. Despite a roller-coaster season, Deron Williams is still one of the best point guards in the league, and with legitimate scoring options around him with Johnson, Lopez, and Gerald Wallace, I think Brooklyn is too attractive a position for Karl to pass up.


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Friday Roundtable: Predicting The Eastern And Western Conference Finals

Fact: Matt Bonner's New Balances do not add inches to his vertical leap. (sportsgif.com)

BDD's Friday Roundtable is a weekly discussion among a group of our writers on a trending NBA or college basketball topic.

This week's question: What teams will make it out of the Eastern Conference Finals and Western Conference Finals to face each other in the NBA Finals?


Alex: 
Eastern Conference Finals:

The Indiana Pacers will not fumble away a 2-1 series lead against the Miami Heat this season because they will never have one. It will take the Heat five more games to close out the Pacers, 4-2, featuring numerous nail-biters. Indiana is a team built to contend with the Heat. It is no fluke the Pacers have claimed a high playoff seed in consecutive seasons; they have even made strides this season, re-tooling the bench and advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals, though that may be due to the luck of not running into Miami in the semifinals again.

That being said, there is no team in the East capable of stopping LeBron James' march to a third consecutive NBA Finals appearance. He's playing too well and, along with a healthier-than-he's-looked-in-a-while Dwyane Wade, the Heat's supporting cast is full of players who could be starting on multiple teams if they played elsewhere: Shane Battier, Ray Allen, even late free agent pick-up Chris Andersen. Mario Chalmers' unavailability to play allowed Norris Cole to show the progressions he has made as a defender, which opens up even more doors for a team that's championed the "positional revolution."

Western Conference Finals: 

Oddly enough, the Pacers' Western Conference doppelganger is still in the title hunt, as well. The Memphis Grizzlies are a team with a high caliber defense and an offense that seemed to be climbing the ladder toward equal footing until the San Antonio Spurs made it sputter in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. The Spurs' core cannot have much left in the tank, but this series is the reason why coach Gregg Popovich rested his stars during the regular season. San Antonio has the experience necessary to make it out of this series alive and, thanks to Pop, its players also have the requisite stamina. Memphis will have its time -- soon -- but when convincing arguments could be made for Tony Parker and Tim Duncan being viable league MVP candidates at separate times during this season, the Spurs are playing like (for lack of a better term) a team of destiny.

Kyle:
Eastern Conference Finals:

Indiana had plenty of chances to win game one of the series. There was a better chance of Mario Chalmers dunking on Roy Hibbert for the win than Ray Allen missing a free throw followed by Paul George hitting the desperation and tying 3-pointer after the Pacers ran around the perimeter for eight seconds. Yet that happened and still a blown defensive play allowed LeBron James one of the easier layups he will ever take to win the game.

The Pacers say it will make them better, more confident. It could also crush their spirits being so close to taking a critical early game on the road. This probably won't be a blowout series. Indiana has played well against the Heat and Hibbert's size can be an X factor down low. But the Pacers still look inexperienced and uncomfortable, as proven at the execution late in regulation and overtime. This series will be close, but Miami wins it in six.

Western Conference Finals:

It feels like it's been the "last ride" for the aging San Antonio Spurs stars for two or three years now. This is a young man's game and Tony Parker and Tim Duncan are running out of time. Well, maybe not quite yet. It's not time yet when Parker gracefully dishes out 18 assists and Duncan efficiently tallies 17 points and nine rebounds in game two of the Western Conference Finals. They've proven that.

Meanwhile, Memphis' offense is MIA as the Grizzlies have failed to crack 90 points in either game this series. Give credit to Popovich's defense and planning for that. Memphis needs more from its role players like Tony Allen and Tayshaun Prince if it hopes to get back into this series. Everyone was expecting Oklahoma City to meet Miami again in the NBA Finals, but I think the fans will do OK with a Spurs/Heat matchup after San Antonio finishes off this series with relative ease.


Fred:

Eastern Conference Finals:

I see the Heat winning the series, but it might take them seven games. The Pacers lost Game 1 in overtime in Miami from a last second layup by LeBron James. However, this defeat did not demoralize the Pacers. After the game Pacers’ coach Frank Vogel said he was, "Very encouraged, our belief in our ability to beat this team has strengthened after Game 1. Our familiarity in the playoffs, in the playoff series grows with each day, grows with each game, and there's a lot of things we can definitely do better."

Even with the win, the Heat had a problem shooting the ball. Shane Battier went 0-4 and Ray Allen went just 1-8. If their shooters can “heat” up from outside, expect them to win in 7.

Western Conference Finals:

The Spurs are up 2-0, but the series is now heading back to Memphis. The Spurs have played great basketball. They are well coached and have the right players to make any adjustment that needs to be done.

When asked if the Grizzlies will make any big adjustments to their lineup, coach Lionel Hollins responded with, “It’s not something I’m ready to do. We want to come out and play much more aggressive, much more confident. There’s no need at this point to change the starting lineup. I mean, we lost an overtime game and we got blown out in a game. We’ve got to come here and hold serve. We have to play better obviously. We’ve got to play better earlier and we’ve got to play better later.”

The Spurs have looked great, but the Grizzlies have shown that they can grind out a game and get the win. Can they do that over a whole series to get into the NBA Finals? Spurs in 6.

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Digging Deeper: Mike Conley's Playoff Performance

Mike Conley is going from overrated to underrated in a very good way. (KGO-TV, San Francisco)

"Mike Conley is now one of the top five point guards in the league, whether anybody likes it or not" - Tony Allen, May 7, 2013

Journalists are taught to never begin a story with a quote. Maybe this rule extends to all writers, maybe it does not, but beginning with those raised marks and someone else's words is lazy, non-inventive and decidedly unappealing. But Tony Allen said something after the Grizzlies beat the Oklahoma City Thunder 99-93 — in Oklahoma City — as Mike Conley recorded a near-triple-double and ascended from the defense-only profile assigned to him by most accounts.

Allen himself represents the mentality of the Grizzlies; he's tough, tenacious and a physical defender. You would forgive him for putting his teammates, and himself by extension, in the best possible light. No one outside of Conley's family, teammates and most ardent fans considered him a top-five point guard through the regular season and it would be a tough task finding someone to put him in that same category when the competition was whittled down to 16 teams for the playoffs? Would anyone realistically place Conley among names like Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Ty Lawson or Steve Nash, injured and all? That goes without mentioning sidelined stars (Rajon Rondo and Derrick Rose) or highly regarded reserves (Eric Bledsoe).

Even out of the eight teams in the conference semifinals, would Conley be a shoe-in for a spot among the best point guards remaining? He's certainly not reached the status of Tony Parker, Stephen Curry or LeBron James in pseudo-point-forward mode. Is Conley's effort comparable to the slash-and-kick, near-rim efficiency of Raymond Felton or the craftiness of Pablo Prigioni? What about Miami's clutch-savoring Mario Chalmers?

No matter what preconceived notions carried into the playoffs, Conley is having a coming out party on a national stage — one that, depending on how long it keeps going, could validate Allen's statement. In November, Jared Dubin and Jordan White wrote about Conley thriving in the shadows and the points made were all accurate, but Conley's 26-point, 10-rebound, nine-assist night comes on the heels of him checking CP3 enough to disrupt the Clippers post-Lob City strategy to help Memphis advance to the second round where, without Westbrook, Conley has more allowance to explore the offensive side of his game.

Entering the series on OKC's hardwood, he took one game to feel things out. Conley shot 33 percent, bogged down by going 1-5 from deep, but assisted on three baskets and managed to grab five rebounds. Game two was different, to say the least. When Memphis traded Rudy Gay to Toronto, the question was if the Grizzlies had a reliable late-game scorer left on the roster. Conley's performance gave a clear answer to the tune of 11-22 shooting, sinking a three to put the Grizzlies ahead by two with less than two minutes to go in the contest. He addressed the situation as a whole after the game, via ESPN:

"After we lost Rudy, it was tough. We didn't know who was going to be that guy down the stretch. I kind of had to assume that role, grow into it, and live and learn from it. Sometimes I make shots and sometimes I don't. I'm kind of getting used to it. Tonight was one of those nights."

It is an adjustment for Conley, being the go-to player in clutch situations. It's also an adjustment getting this kind of attention, the kind that comes with being on the forefront of a playoff team. He isn't quite there yet — Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph and Allen are still Grizzlies, after all — but Conley has come a long way from his time at Ohio State, living essentially as a sidekick to Greg Oden. The criticism of his ability to be a successful point guard in the NBA started even before Conley started 46 games as a rookie in 2007-08. It took his Memphis team three more seasons to reach the playoffs, facing both the San Antonio Spurs and the Thunder as an underdog. Since then, though, the Grizzlies have been a Western Conference mainstay in the postseason and Conley has drastically improved in nearly every meaningful category.

Season	PER	TS%	eFG%	ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%	ORtg	DRtg	OWS	DWS	WS	WS/48
2010-11	13.7	.477	.418	1.6	10.0	5.7	27.5	1.5	0.5	12.7	21.3	102	109	0.3	0.3	0.6	.059
2011-12	15.7	.550	.493	1.7	8.7	5.1	32.6	1.2	0.0	15.1	17.7	115	106	0.6	0.2	0.8	.146
2012-13	21.9	.534	.458	2.8	12.8	7.6	36.0	1.8	0.9	9.5	23.1	117	107	0.9	0.2	1.2	.187
Career	16.5	.510	.446	1.9	10.4	6.0	31.2	1.5	0.5	12.2	20.9	110	108	1.9	0.8	2.6	.117

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/9/2013.

Realistically, Conley will not be considered one of the top five point guards at the end of the Grizzlies' current playoff run, whenever that may be. He probably won't even receive such a designation in the run-up to the 2013-14 season. In Tony Allen's eyes, though, Conley is already there and, according to the numbers, the always underrated point-man is well on his way. All he needs is a little more time to get used to the role.

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Friday Roundtable: What Team Is Coming Back From A 3-2 Deficit?

Can the Clippers battle back from being down 3-2 to take the series from Memphis? (foxsportswest.com)

BDD's Friday Roundtable is a weekly discussion among a group of our writers on a trending NBA or college basketball topic.

This week's question: All four of Friday's games have the series at 3-2. Which team currently trailing is most likely to come back and advance to the next round?

Alex:
Boston? Atlanta? Houston? No. I'll take the Clippers as the team with the best chance to rattle out a series win after going down 3-2.

It took a massive comeback in Game 7 for them to close out the Memphis Grizzlies around this time last year and there's no reason it can't happen again. Chris Paul is the best point guard of his generation, able to balance the acts of tallying assists and taking on the scoring burden when needed, particularly in clutch moments. He has a fine supporting cast of bigs and a serviceable (and more, in the regular season) back-up.

If the Clips are to surge past Memphis, though, they must start impacting the paint and pulling in rebounds. This starts with DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin, high ankle sprain and all, being able to gut it out against one of the NBA's best frontcourt tandems in Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. Easier said than done, obviously, but Jordan and Griffin are due for a big game and should go into tonight's potential elimination game looking to get their opposition in foul trouble and, moreso, out-positioning and out-hustling the Grizzlies for every possible rebound.

This extends to all the Los Angeles bigs. Basically, they must hold up their end of the bargain inside so the league's top distributor can keep his eyes open for weak spots in Memphis' armor.

Kyle:
The Los Angeles Clippers have the best chance of coming back and winning the series. This is partially because Oklahoma City and New York have been the better teams, but maybe let up on the gas a little too early, and Atlanta has looked about as stable as a one-legged gymnast.

But mostly the Clippers need it more than the Grizzlies do, and the team should realize that. Sure, we can talk about how great Memphis is defensively, how much Zach Randolph has stepped up the past three games and that the Clippers are banged up (it wasn't planned, but Alex hit all of this on the head in his portion), but sometimes a team just wills itself to victory. The Clippers surely know this is the year they can't exit in the first round.

It's such an unfamiliar sight. The city of Los Angeles is there for the taking. After decades of being the little brother to the Lakers and the city's punchline, the Clippers now have the better team. The Lakers season is already over, and the Clippers can build even more of a case for their arrival if they can advance further than their cross-city rival. This is why Chris Paul came to LA. This is why they drafted Blake Griffin. It has been a slow process to return to relevance and this year was the perfect combination of Clippers success and Lakers failure. Those who wore paper bags over their heads to Clippers games 10 years ago can now proudly don that red Clippers shirt and know the waiting is starting to pay off. Now is the time to capitalize on that, and I think the team understands that. 

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Memphis' Marc Gasol Wins NBA Defensive Player of the Year

Memphis' Marc Gasol is this season's NBA Defensive Player of the Year. (cbssports.com)

While the older Gasol brother has been trying to find his place in the hurricane that is the Los Angeles Lakers, younger brother Marc has had an impressive season that just led to the announcement by the Memphis Commercial Appeal that he won the NBA Defensive Player of the Year award.

Gasol averaged 7.8 rebounds per game, 1.7 blocks and one steal per contest this season to go along with 14.1 ppg. Gasol's defensive game got even better down the stretch in April, where he averaged 8.4 rebounds, two blocks and 1.3 steals per game.

Memphis is the No. 1 defensive team in the country, allowing just 89.3 ppg while playing in the Western Conference where most teams give up more than 100 per game.


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Grizzlies' Season in Question after Gasol Injury

Marc Gasol is central to the Grizzlies' plans on offense, defense and gesturing. (Getty Images)

Adequate scoring is what worried people about the Memphis Grizzlies directly after the Rudy Gay trade, but defense is the primary concern after the news of Marc Gasol's abdominal tear sidelining the center indefinitely, possibly for the team's remaining 12 games of the regular season or longer after already missing Saturday's game against the Boston Celtics.

Losing one of the NBA's best centers would be a major hit to any team, let alone a team operating with the basis of a defense-centric strategy as the Grizzlies do. Along with forward Zach Randolph, Gasol is half of a tandem that terrifies any player thinking of entering the paint. Gasol's specialty is blocking (he is 10th in the league with 116 on the season) while Z-Bo's strength is rebounding. Pure stats display Randolph as the more active defender, as he grabs 25.2 percent of defensive boards when on the court — a number that could very well decline without the taller Gasol patrolling the interior and changing shots regardless of whether or not he successfully swats the ball.

The Grizzlies will also endure a fall-off on the offensive end of the court. Gasol isn't a prodigious scorer (14.3 points per game), but he is likely the best passing big man in the NBA. Several Memphis sets are predicated on Gasol getting touches at the elbow and either feeding the ball into the low post or passing across the lane to a teammate roaming around the perimeter.

Having already clinched a playoff berth, the only question is if the Grizzlies can maintain the Western Conference's No. 5 seed without Gasol. The talent gap between four- and five-seeds in the playoffs may not be deep, but if Memphis falls even one spot it will see the Los Angeles Clippers' young, athletic frontcourt; two and it's a repeat of the 2011 series against the Oklahoma City Thunder; three and the Grizzlies face the veteran San Antonio Spurs. A first-round series against the No. 4 Denver Nuggets is preferable to any of those scenarios.

No matter the opponent, Memphis has to hope Gasol's "day-to-day" tag is more accurate than it is generous, or else a season in which the Grizzlies were expected to be legitimate contenders in the West could turn into an exit after the first round of the playoffs.

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First Major Player Traded as Memphis Deals Rudy Gay to Toronto

Rudy Gay is now a member of the Toronto Raptors after a three-team deal with Memphis. (bleacherreport.com)

Boston. Houston. Milwaukee. Minnesota. Rudy Gay could have been calling any of those places home after news surfaced in December he might be available for the right return, which the Memphis Grizzlies found Thursday in a three-team trade sending the small forward to the Toronto Raptors and netting the Grizzlies the front court duo of Tayshaun Prince and Austin Daye, who leave the Detroit Pistons as point guard Jose Calderon comes in from Toronto.

This trade also lands forward Ed Davis in Memphis along with a second-round pick from Toronto, while Grizzlies reserve center Hamed Haddadi goes to the Raptors.

Memphis is the only true winner in this situation, vacating Gay's contract of nearly $34.4 million over two years and a player-option $19.3 million third year in return for a total of just under $17.7 million (three years of Prince and one of Daye). Including the Davis-Haddadi swap, Memphis net savings is around $15.1 million.

New owner Robert Para is guiding the Grizzlies away from big contracts while trying to maintain the integrity of a franchise that has come on strong over the past three years, making several playoff appearances and currently sitting at fourth place in the Western Conference rankings. It was during one of those playoff runs -- in 2011, when Memphis upset the San Antonio Spurs before battling and eventually being eliminated by the Oklahoma City Thunder -- when Zach Randolph emerged as Gay watched from the bench due to injury. Randolph's ascendance and the continuous high-level player of Marc Gasol, one of the best passing centers in the NBA, made Gay less valuable to the franchise, especially in light of the playoff success the Grizzlies experienced with him in street clothes.

Gay is the first major player to be traded this season, outlasted on the trading block by Pau Gasol and the injured Anderson Varejao. His decreased importance to the Grizzlies allowed Memphis to replace him with a veteran like Prince, who, though aging, can still contribute while the organization develops Daye and Davis to fit its mold, barring any successive trades or buyouts.

The three-team deal also facilitates the long speculated-about flight of Calderon away from Toronto. He becomes a free agent after this season, so his stint in Detroit is likely to be short, placing him in a back-up role behind young point guard Brandon Knight on a roster loaded with reserve guards -- a situation completely different than the swingman-heavy look from which Memphis wanted to move away and Toronto just inherited.

Gay and the Grizzlies can part ways amicably. Gay will be the Raptors' go-to scorer as Toronto continues with a future just slightly less hazy than it had before the deal, facilitating Detroit's move to focus on its core of youthful talent, while the Grizzlies will still be a playoff team and save a few million dollars. All is well that ends well.



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