Friday Roundtable: Toughest Road Out of the Sweet 16

FGCU's rough road from the Sweet 16 is not safe for dancing. (via Bleacher Report)

BDD's Friday Roundtable is a weekly discussion among a group of our writers on a trending NBA or college basketball topic.

This week's question: Which remaining Sweet 16 team faces the most challenging road to an NCAA championship?

Kyle:

My first instinct was to pick a team from the stacked Midwest bracket, but instead I'm going with America's favorite team it just heard of; Florida Gulf Coast.

Being a No. 15 seed Cinderella, every team the Eagles face from here on will be large favorites and more talented than the teams the Eagles see in the majority of the regular season. It doesn't help the other three teams in the region are very low seeds (No. 1, No. 3 and No. 4), FGCU has to play its bigger brother of sorts in Florida and two of these teams (Michigan and Kansas) have been ranked No. 1 in either the AP or coaches poll this year.

If the slipper continues to fit, FGCU would have to face the winner of the East, which was the only region to have all top four seeds reach the Sweet 16. Finally, it's hard to imagine either Louisville, Duke or Michigan State from the Midwest not reaching the title game. That's a major task for a team unknown to the majority of the country before a week ago. 

Alex:
Oregon. The Ducks were woefully underseeded, which made their first two games tougher than they deserved. Yet, they handled both Oklahoma State and a sweetheart St. Louis team with little trouble.

Now that the tournament's wheat has been separated from the chaff, things only get harder. The Ducks must first overcome Louisville, the No. 1 overall seed and a notoriously stingy defensive squad. From there one of two lightweights (you know, Michigan State or Duke) would be waiting in the Elite Eight before a match with either a peaking Wichita State or Ohio State's beat-'em-at-the-buzzer Buckeyes.

Picture a duck — feathers, beak and all — in a house from one of the Saw films. Those are the kinds of traps awaiting Oregon, with the ultimate one being a title game against a No. 1, No. 2, No. 3 or No. 4 seed, or a Cinderella with a groundswell of support in the stands and in the hearts of college hoops fans.


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Getting To Know Florida Gulf Coast

Learn a little bit more about the Cinderella that is sweeping the country; Florida Gulf Coast. (thedailybeast.com)

You hadn't heard of Florida Gulf Coast before this Sweet 16 run. That's OK. No one expected you to. Which is why this post will help you learn all about the school that came from nowhere to ruin the nation's collective bracket.

School facts

• School President is William G. Bradshaw Ph.D.
• FGCU's doors opened in 1997
• FGCU has 12,655 total students, 92 percent of which are from the state of Florida
• One of the 24 sports clubs on campus is archery, so be careful with the smack talk
• FGCU's 150 student organizations include: Accounting Club, Clinical Laboratory Science Student Organization, FGCU Dance Company, Event Planning Club and FGCU Fishing Club
• Famous alumni include a professional monster truck driver, PGA Tour golfer Derek Lamely and Chris Sale, pitcher for the Chicago White Sox

Basketball facts

• Team record is 26-10 and 13-5 in conference play
• The Eagles defeated Miami 63-51 on Nov. 13
• FGCU was 15-1 at home this season
• In the team's first season in 2002-03, the Eagles played in the NCAA Division II without a conference and went 23-9
• The Eagles first season in the Atlantic Sun conference was 2007-08 and they finished 10-21 overall and 6-10 in the conference
• Last year, FGCU was 15-17 overall and 8-10 in conference, making this season an 11 game improvement. 

Feel free to throw these facts out to friends while watching the game tonight to make you seem more knowledgable than you are. At least you'll have some support when you lie, saying, "Oh, you just now are hearing about the Eagles? I've been on this bandwagon for a while." 

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NBA Draft Stock Tracker: Forwards Fall as Guards Rise

Russ Smith is showing off at the right time of year. (Chris Chambers/Getty Images)

For some players, the NCAA tournament is a chance for players to represent their schools and to play hard for realizing their dreams of being a champion. For others, it is a springboard to help show off their talents for the NBA draft. Here are the list of some of the best and worst performances by players who may be going to the draft this summer. 

Russ Smith, Louisville: Buy

Smith may be the best player on the No. 1 ranked team in the tournament this year, but he hasn’t gotten a lot of attention from NBA scouts. Smith has mostly been trailing other point guards like Oklahoma State's Marcus Smart and Michigan's Trey Burke because of his perceived inconsistency, but in the first game of the tournament he had 23 points on 10-16 shooting with eight steals. In the second game, he dropped 27 points on 7-15 shooting.

Ben McLemore, Kansas: Sell

As a KU fan, this one hurts me. McLemore had only 11 points against 16-seeded Western Kentucky while committing four turnovers. Not terrible, but not what you would expect from a possible No. 1 draft pick either. Against North Carolina, McLemore went 0-9 and finished with just two points. If he doesn’t rebound from this slump against Michigan in the Sweet 16, McLemore might actually see his name drop in the NBA draft.

Otto Porter, Georgetown: Sell

I’m a big Otto Porter fan and I still think he’ll go in the top 10 and be a good player in the NBA, but losing to Florida Gulf Coast is a bad way to end your college career. Porter was in a shooting slump late in the season and had only shot above 40 percent once in his last five games. He’s still rebounding and playing good defense, but Porter's shooting woes may turn scouts off.

Aaron Craft, Ohio State: Buy

Not many have him going high in the draft, but Craft is still playing excellent ball in the tournament. He had 18 points against Iowa State, including a last-second shot to win the game, while continuing to lock down opponents on the perimeter and provide the Buckeyes with veteran leadership.

Jeff Withey, Kansas: Buy

He’s most likely going to be a low first round pick for his size and regular season statistics alone, but his recent performances could boost his stock. Withey had 17 points and seven blocks against Western Kentucky and followed it up with 16 points, 16 rebounds, and five blocks against North Carolina.

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How Southern Almost Upset Gonzaga

Gonzaga narrowly survived a second-round game against No. 16 seed Southern. (espn.com)

It is common knowledge that a No. 16 seed has never bested a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Even in years with high parity, the talent gap is usually wide enough for top seeds to glide to easy victories over their less lauded opponents. The knowledge still holds true, but the Southern Jaguars nearly made college basketball and tourney history by upsetting the Gonzaga Bulldogs. It took the Zags a late surge to escape with a 64-58 win that wasn't as close as the final score indicates.

So how did Southern do it? It was a perfect storm. Jaguars head coach Roman Banks built this season's team in the Gonzaga mold and his players knew they were to consider themselves to be like the former Cinderella program. When the round of 64 game was announced on Selection Sunday, the comparison already existed; Southern saw itself on par with the Zags in spite of seeding.

Speculation about Gonzaga already filled national headlines, maybe not concerning overall record but questioning strength of schedule during West Coast Conference play and the legitimacy of the Bulldogs' No. 1 ranking heading into the tournament, which parlayed into a No. 1 seed.

Banks knew all this and one would expect his players did, too. Southern came out hitting 3-pointers and tightened the screws on defense, playing Gonzaga to a 34-34 draw at halftime. The Jaguars didn't let up in the second half and it wasn't until Gary Bell, Jr. and Kevin Pangos hit a pair of treys as Southern went cold from the field that the Bulldogs had some breathing room with under four minutes to play.

Half psychological. Half physical. All Southern. The Jaguars were truly not intimidated, something another 16-seed has already taken to heart when Western Kentucky put a scare into Kansas Friday night. Expect the trend to continue because, eventually, a No. 1 seed will lose in the round of 64 and Banks' Jaguars will be the prototype for the No. 16 team seed that makes history.

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NCAA Tournament: Round of 64 Day 2 Recap

No. 15 seed Florida Gulf Coast had the win of the night by knocking off No.2 Georgetown. (sportsillustrated.cnn.com)

This is more like it. Anyone still feeling good about your bracket? Yeah, I didn't think so. Except for maybe one of our writers, Fred, who somehow picked Harvard and La Salle. Showoff. The tournament balanced a day of blowouts and chalk Thursday with nail-biters and  Cinderella's in training Friday. So naturally the major talking point after Friday is …

Who Wants A Slipper?
Today proved upsets are still alive and well in March. For the second day, a No. 1 was tested before closing out a narrow victory as Kansas held off Western Kentucky. Kansas City didn't see a No. 16 win, but it did see two double-digit seeds pull off victories back-to-back as No. 12 Ole Miss defeated No. 5 seed Wisconsin before No. 13 La Salle blew an 18-point lead to Kansas State before coming back to win. Other notable upsets were No. 11 Minnesota over UCLA, No. 10 Iowa State crushing Notre Dame, No. 9 Temple (upset in name only). Oh and then there was …

The biggest win of the day goes to No. 15 Florida Gulf Coast, a school that wasn't founded until 1991, who outplayed No. 2 Georgetown all game to move on to the next round. This is the second consecutive year a No. 15 has defeated a No. 2 (Leheigh and Norfolk St. last year), and before that it hasn't happened since 2001 (Hampton over Iowa St). The increasing trend of No. 15 seeds winning makes a No. 16 victory seem more likely.

Hot and cold
Don't tell the A-10 it isn't a power conference. Teams from the A-10 are 5-0 (VCU, La Salle, Butler, St. Louis andTemple) and most have a good chance of advancing to the Sweet 16. No BCS conferences can show that kind of record. The Big Ten's only loss has been Wisconsin, and the ACC's was North Carolina State, but the Big XII is 2-3, Pac-12 is 2-2 and the Mountain West has been disappointing with both New Mexico and UNLV falling in the first round.

Milestone for Ol' Roy
UNC's second-round victory over Villanova earned Roy Williams 700th career victory. His reward? Having to face his former school and No. 1 seed Kansas in the third round. Roy has faced KU twice before since he left, both times being in the NCAA Tournament, and Roy is 0-2. Still, 700 wins is a incredible accomplishment for a Hall of Fame coach.

Spying Cinderella Pt. 2: Montana Grizzlies

Does Montana have the firepower from 3-point range to knock off Syracuse and become Cinderella? (sbnation.com)

By now, you've seen all the "expert" predictions on who could make a splash with a big upset in the second (first) round and possibly carry the banner of 'Cinderella' into the Sweet 16. You've probably taken this advice and settled on a couple Cinderellas to feature on your bracket. But don't turn that sucker in to the pool manager without giving one last hard look at the Montana Grizzlies, the scrappy champions of the Big Sky Conference.

Montana returns the bulk of its players from a first-round-tournament exit one year ago, which was not particularly competitive. Giving a hot team like Montana additional motivation to prove itself is like adding fuel to the fire. The Grizzlies have won 21 of 23 coming into their Thursday night match-up with 4-seed Syracuse.

We all know how big a factor 3-point shooting is for underdogs to overcome their disadvantages in the athleticism department. This is particularly true when going up against Syracuse's vaunted zone defense. As a team, Montana shoots 38.5 percent from 3 — five percentage points better than Syracuse. They also post the No. 23 highest overall field goal percentage in the nation at 47.4 percent.

Aspiring Cinderellas always benefit from experienced floor generals, and Montana has that in senior point guard, Will Cherry. In a close game down the stretch, Cherry could be the difference, along with the Grizzlies' stellar 76.8 percent team free throw percentage. One reason to hesitate when picking Montana to advance tonight, though, is its loss of leading scorer and senior forward Mathias Ward late in the season to a foot injury. Montana managed to persevere and make it to the Big Dance anyway, but he could be sorely missed in those moments when the Grizzlies desperately need a bucket to turn back Syracuse's momentum.

It won't be easy for Montana to pull off the upset, by any means, but if Syracuse goes cold, the Grizzlies are the perfect team to take advantage. Some hot shooting from deep, early and often, coupled with enough opportunities at the charity stripe, could spell trouble for the Orangemen... and victory for your bracket.

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BDD Brackets: Who Our Writers Picked In The NCAA Tournament

Since we writers for BDD have been giving you, and will continue to give you loads of information and breakdowns of the NCAA Tournament, we're putting our brackets where our mouths are and revealing our tournament selections.

Alex:

Let's be clear: I am not at all comfortable with this bracket. It didn't even feel right while it was happening, but I'm forging ahead with it because many of these are reasonable picks (even two No. 2's, a No. 1 and a No. 3 make the Final Four), which is exactly what distresses me about this bracket. Instead of doing the usual amount of research, I took an approach that mixed equal parts eye test and gut reaction with a reputation regarding defensive and scoring prowess. High risk, high reward.

• Living in the heart of Big 12 country, I advanced each team in the conference except for the young, athletic Oklahoma Sooners. K-State sees an early exit, having been eliminated by Wisconsin twice since the turn of the century (2008, 2011) and new coach Bruce Weber's Big Ten experience shouldn't be enough to overcome history.

• Upsets — Colorado got some glancing love even after defecting from the Big 12. Some of it is also due to Illinois' underachieving ways. Like innumerable other people, I have Davidson advancing over Marquette, although I believe Buzz Williams' squad is underrated. The biggest chances I took are in the loaded Midwest region with Louisville going down to a balanced, physical St. Louis, and Creighton moving past Duke. Many people fail to realize the Bluejays can score without Doug McDermott on the floor and are battle-tested having played Wichita State's stringent defense three times in Missouri Valley play.

• Sweating — Having two Big Ten teams, let alone both Michigan teams, in the Final Four has me worried. Trey Burke can put the Wolverines on his back if need be and Tom Izzo primes his teams for March each season, something that puts the Spartans far ahead of the pack in a year where there is not a clear cut juggernaut. Sending Georgetown and Florida to the Sweet 16 (and further, for the Hoyas) will keep me on pins and needles until they prove me otherwise, though.

  Kyle:

This year, more than ever, is up in the air. There is no dominant Kentucky team of last year that was a virtual no brainer for the Final Four. This tournament could go a number of ways, which means the amount of research, scouting and knowledge might be futile. You might as well pick by color or mascot. Nevertheless, it is an equal playing field in the fact that this field is a jumbled mess to everyone, so here's a few of my thoughts and reasonings for why you see the names above that you do.

• While there is more parity than ever, I do think there's still only a handful of teams that are legitimate title contenders. So while I loved some early-round upsets, there is still a good amount of chalk in the Elite 8 and up. It's difficult to stop - I wanted to go with that No. 13 seed to reach the Final Four, but as much as I tried, I couldn't do it. Some teams are just better, even with the parity.
• That being said, I love some double-digit seeds to advance to the third round (Round of 32) and on to the Sweet 16. As I mentioned in my initial reactions post, I really like No. 14 Davidson because of how the Wildcats match up with Marquette and then advancing on to the Sweet 16. Remember, they're on a roll. I also clearly like the No. 11's and No. 10's as I have two No. 11's (Belmont and Minnesota) and two No. 10-seeds (Iowa State and Colorado) winning second-round games.
• I read an incredible stat that only once in the past 16 years have all four No. 2 seeds reached the Sweet 16. No. 2 seeds seem like almost automatic advances, yet one always falls. That's why I picked Iowa State to knock off Ohio State (I also considered Colorado over Miami). Iowa State is a dynamic 3-point shooting team that when they're hot, the offense is very tough to stop. If they can hit outside shots and play better defense, I could see the Cyclones reaching the Sweet 16.
• As for my Final Four, I'll start in the Midwest, where honestly any of the top four seeds could be in Atlanta. I really wanted to put St. Louis in Atlanta, but Tom Izzo gets his teams ready in March as well as anyone. The Spartans are balanced and physical, which bodes well for this tournament. A lot of people are writing off Gonzaga, but I've watched at least half of the Bulldogs' games this year and they are a legitimate great team. I think Indiana is too strong for Miami in the East and if the Kansas team that played in the Big 12 Tournament shows up here, the Jayhawks have the talent to reach the Final Four.

 Zach:

My college basketball knowledge, is not the best, but this is what I think I know. Miami CRUSHED Duke at some point this season. New Mexico didn't hold back when scheduling opponents (the Lobos have the second-rated strength of schedule). Being in-tune to the Minnesota Golden Gophers' play kept my ear open to the Big Ten. That being said, here's the method to my bracket madness.

• Regardless of their season and ACC tournament performance, usually Duke lands in my final four. Coach K has his pick when recruiting and also happens to be a pretty darn good in-game coach.  

• Minnesota Golden Gophers — I have lived in Minnesota for a scattered 17 years. I've watched Rodney Williams, Joe Coleman and Trevor Mbakwe play since their days in high school. I picked them to be a Sweet 16 team before the year and cannot go back now.  

• Big Ten — Picked every team to win first round match-up, but none to make the Final Four. Known for it's grind-it-out style, the B1G contains excellent guard play. Aaron Craft (Ohio State), Victor Oladipo (Indiana) and Big Ten Player of the Year Trey Burke (Michigan) all need to help control the pace for their team. Guard play is essential to tournament success.

• If I needed to make a guess or felt completely lost, I determined a winner using Strength of Schedule. After SoS, I went to allowed points per game and PPG differential. If I still struggled to decide a winner, I went with the team who had a player leading them in both PPG and assists per game.  

• Cinderella (If I had one) — I chose St. Mary's to be victorious in both their play-in round game and a match-up with Memphis. I like St. Mary's going to Australia to recruite players who have experience in national competition. Patty Mills, now with the San Antonio Spurs, led St. Mary's to a Sweet 16 appearance a few years back. An upset relies heavily on Aussie guard Matthew Dellavedova's offensive presence. Also relentless on-ball defender, Dellavedova has not shot well in previous tournament appearances.

Fred:

• Jordan Adams, second on UCLA in scoring, was able to provide 15.3 points per game. His injury can have a dramatic effect on the first round where UCLA is ranked 6th and Minnesota 11th. I can see Minnesota upset UCLA with their balanced scoring and tremendous rebounding.

• Zeller will be a tough matchup for every team, but Adreian Payne will be the difference maker for Michigan State.

• San Diego State, how can you not love them? I’m forced to since my brother is an alumni and it’s the only place I go to watch college basketball live. This pick is from the heart, not the mind. I’m not worried about the statistics, nor am I worried about what implications this pick may have on the rest of my bracket. I put my soul into this pick, and I’m sticking with it.

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March Madness Five-Word Descriptions

Need some knowledge on each of the schools in the tournament? We've got you covered. (sportingnews.com)

The first four teams will play tonight for a chance to play again with the rest of the NCAA Tournament field. With a large diversity in power conference and mid-major teams and some teams who are either new to the tournament or have not been dancing for a while, we've compiled five-word descriptions of all 68 teams in the tournament to help you get to know who you are picking in your brackets.

Akron - Let them wear Twitter handles!
Albany - Upstate NY's only canine mascot.
Arizona - Was great until Pac-12 play.
Belmont - Tourney's second-most historic Bruins.
Boise State -No, their court isn't blue.
Bucknell - Giant Major-not-major killer
Butler - Found out A10 > Horizon League.
California - Want to avenge UNLV loss.
Cincinnati - Bear claws better than Bearcats.
Colorado - University of Chauncey Billups-Boulder
Colorado State - Hide the Lexington co-eds.
Creighton - Minnesota Timberwolves junior varsity squad.
Davidson - Riding a big winning streak.
Duke - Championship lock, if at home.
Florida - Duke version 2.0: Southern comfort.
Florida Gulf Coast - Forgotten in East/West beef.
Georgetown - Best player named Otto since...?
Gonzaga - Wearing first round short shorts?
Harvard - Less stylish warm-ups than Princeton.
Illinois - If only performance = Groce's energy.
Indiana - Top seed and still underachieving.
Iona - Iowa's urban, middle class cousin.
Iowa State - Threes on threes on threes.
James Madison - Biggest achievement since U.S. Constitution.
Kansas - Mid-major loss? Championship or bust?
Kansas State - Strength: grit. Weakness: Big Ten.
La Salle -One basketball HOFer, Tom Gola.
Liberty - Could potentially face Seth Curry.
Long Island - The world is yours, guys.
Louisville - Drake's new favorite Kentucky program.
Marquette - Cool name, cool coach's name.
Memphis - Josh Pastner continues working magic.
Miami (FL) -Paternal professional baseball player? Check.
Michigan - Wolverines might actually eat Jackrabbits.
Michigan State - Never underestimate Izzo in March.
Middle Tennessee State -'I' in 'Ten-I-See'
Minnesota - Experienced, strong, but mostly inconsistent.
Mississippi - "Is this like a bowl game?"
Missouri - There's always SEC football, MIZ.
Montana - Big Sky champs, big upside.
New Mexico - Possibly underseeded; maybe Arizona's neighbor.
New Mexico State -Properly seeded; Arizona's stately neighbor.
North Carolina - Improving at the right time.
North Carolina A&T - They have great cell service.
North Carolina State - Plenty of Wolves, no Pack.
Northwestern State - Not just "Northwestern." Sorry, Wildcats.
Notre Dame -Irish will need some luck.
Ohio State - If Craft becomes scorer, intimidating.
Oklahoma - Lon Kruger really gets around.
Oklahoma State - Smart among tourney's best players.
Oregon - Chip Kelly's high-powered, wait....
Pacific - Nice while it lasted, right?
Pittsburgh - Dixon knows how to coach.
Saint Louis - Consensus Cinderella for good reason.
Saint Mary's - Buzzer-beaters don't make a resume.
San Diego State - SD Not-A-State University
South Dakota State - Wolters v. Burke will be epic.
Southern - Branford Marsalis free-form athletics.
Syracuse - Tough with game on line.
Temple -Indiana Jones joke here somewhere...
UCLA - Popular pick to be upset.
UNLV - The NBA's summer league team.
Valparaiso - Fourth best team from Indiana.
Villanova - Dr. Jekyll or Mr. Hyde?
Virginia Commonwealth - Scary as a No. 5.
Western Kentucky - Anagram for "Crunk tween tykes."
Wichita State - Could advance on athleticism alone.
Wisconsin - Badgers will be tough out.

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Spying Cinderella - Can Bucknell Make A Run In The NCAA Tournament

Can Bucknell build on past tournament success? (nydailynews.com)

In a year with the greatest parity college basketball has seen in some time, where to begin when searching for this year's Cinderella(s)? Butler and VCU have been-there, done-that and St. Louis is hotter than Kate Upton in a parka, but to find a true Cinderella, you've got to dive down to the double-digit seeds. Which of these is poised for not just one second-round upset, but a legitimate Sweet Sixteen, or even Final Four run?

Many teams in this field could find themselves dancing in glass slippers, but to me, 11-seed Bucknell stands out in the crowd. Few teams in the tournament boast an interior weapon like the Bison's 6-11 center Mike Muscala. Muscala averages 19 points and 12 rebounds per game and has legitimate NBA potential. He will be a load for any team to deal with, regardless of seeding. Bucknell also finds senior leadership in 6-2 guard Bryson Johnson and 6-7 forward Joe Willman, both of whom are double-digit scorers.

The Bison enter the tournament on a roll, cruising to the Patriot League Championship by winning 12 of their last 13 games in impressive fashion. Furthermore, their five total losses this year have only come at an average margin of 4.4 points. Most importantly, though, they are hot and brimming with confidence at just the right time.

Bucknell came onto the scene in a big way by beating 3-seed Kansas as a 14-seed in a 2005 first-round game for the program's first NCAA victory. I think this is the year they take the extra step and go from a one-hit wonder to Belle of the Ball. If Bucknell can get past Butler, a well-coached, experienced unit, the bottom half of the East Region sets up well for an Elite Eight appearance and a true Cinderella story.

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Initial Reaction To The NCAA Tournament Seedings

Louisville: The NCAA Tournament's top overall seed. (Getty)

No. 1's: Louisville - Midwest (overall), Kansas - South, Indiana - East, Gonzaga - West

Bubbles/snubs: St. Mary's, Middle Tennessee St., La Salle and Boise St. are in. Maryland, Tennessee, Southern Mississippi, Virginia and Kentucky left out.

Best "second round" match-ups: Let me start by saying I hate calling it the second round due to the play-in games. It will always be the first round in my mind.

There are some 8-9 matchups that automatically jump out (Pitt vs. Wichita St. and Colorado St. vs Missouri), but those are always very close.

Oregon should have been higher than a No. 12 seed and will give a great battle to an athletic Oklahoma State team. Also look for Michigan vs. South Dakota State and elite scorer Nate Wolters, then there's match-up with two teams that couldn't be more different: Wisconsin vs. Ole Miss. Marshall Henderson going against the physical Badgers defense should make for a great contest.

Easiest region: I would have to say the East, although many analysts feel the West wins the crown. The No. 1 (Indiana) and No. 2 (Miami) are tough teams, but Marquette (No. 3 seed) and Syracuse (No. 4 seed) could both see early upsets. Neither Big East team has a lot of momentum entering the tournament.

You'll see the toughest region below, but the South has a strong No. 1 in Kansas, No. 2 in Georgetown and No. 4 in Michigan, while Ohio State has earned it's No. 2 seed out West and Kansas State at the No. 4 doesn't have a bad loss all season, not to mention Gonzaga, who has the best record in the country and comes in as the No. 1-ranked team.

Toughest region: The Midwest, hands down. The selection committee's overall No. 1-seed present to Louisville was putting Duke, Michigan St., St. Louis and Oklahoma St. as the 2-5 seeds. Then throw in a dangerous Creighton team at No. 7 and an Oregon team who many feel were wildly under-seeded at a No. 12 and this will be a battle in Indianapolis.

Second-round upset pick: Obviously when we talk upsets, we're not looking for a No. 9 over a No. 8 or a No. 10 over a No. 7. We're talking double-digit seeds advancing to the weekend. Lots of people are looking at Montana over Syracuse, but I think Belmont could give Arizona all the Wildcats can handle as a No. 11 vs. a No. 6. For a big pick, don't forget about No. 14. Davidson against No. 3 Marquette. This is more about Davidson's strengths than Marquette's weakness. The Wildcats are a strong fundamental, defensive team than can scorch it from 3-point range. They are also a little undersized in the post but match up well with Marquette, which is also undersized except for Chris Otule, who is 6-11.

Sleeper: For sleepers, we're talking about high-seeded teams advancing to the Sweet 16 and beyond. I really like two of the No. 10 seeds (Iowa St. and Colorado) who have the ability to advance into the Sweet 16. Iowa State will need to play better defense, but can score at will and Colorado hasn't been overly consistent, but is balanced enough to make a run if the Buffs could find some momentum.

Never doubt Butler, a No. 6 seed with a decent path to the Elite 8, and when No. 7-seed Creighton and Doug McDermott are on, the Bluejays are very good. As mentioned earlier, watch out for Davidson and Belmont, as well.

Final thought: As we all know, this tournament is up in the air. In a year with no dominant team, the parity seems to be at an all-time high. Any number of teams could make a run to the Sweet 16 and there are a handful of teams that are legitimate title contenders. What that means for the fans: this is going to be a fun March.

Good luck with your brackets and let the madness begin.


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Play-In Game Winners Deserve 16-Seeds, Not 12-Seeds

As a 12-seed, USF beat Temple, but was frustrated by Ohio. (orlandosentinel.com)

The term "field of 64" lost its meaning in the college basketball landscape several years ago with the addition of a single play-in game bringing a 65th team into the NCAA Tournament. Since those simpler and, frankly, better times, the field has been expanded to include 68 teams and three more play-in games, turning the traditional first round into what is now coined the "second round." The play-in games are by no means necessary, but they have become a part of the fold. But why reward the teams involved with anything more than a 16-seed?

If the tournament selection committee cannot bring themselves to award teams with outright berths, should they given play-in winners a 12-seed and a lighter assignment upon entering the group of 64? Save the higher seeds for a team that has legitimately earned a spot in the tourney, whether a strong resume warrants an at-large bid or teams each improve one seed through the 12th spot, thus giving teams that have proven themselves and conference tournament champions a slightly easier assignment while sliding the play-in game winners into the bottom seed.

Allowing a team to compete for a lighter weight second round opponent can certainly make for a great story if any of the play-in teams move past the second round — a feat more likely to come out of a 12/5 match than a 16/1 game — but only one of 36 teams to participate in 18 games has ever entered the round of 32, when South Florida claimed a 12-seed and defeated Temple before suffering a six-point dismissal by Ohio in 2012.

Had the Bulls been able to overcome the Bobcats, they would have almost certainly been eliminated by No. 1-seeded North Carolina, and that possibility reveals the true problem with USF getting a 12-seed at all. The Bulls caught two lucky breaks by meeting mid-major teams after gaining entry into the larger tournament round. As good as the Atlantic 10 has been as a conference in recent years, Temple was not scaring anyone after last year's regular season ended, and D.J. Cooper and Ohio were not expected to beat a No. 4 Michigan team laden with young talent.

USF parlayed an anomalous play-in game spot into an low seed-over-high seed upset. The Bulls' success in the tournament last season is a perfect example of why college basketball in March is a thing of beauty. However, it was the machination of a committee that underrated an Ohio team, placing the Bobcats at No. 13 in their region, one spot below the USF team lacking that same committee's faith.

The Bulls' wins were not part of the natural magic of March Madness. Giving them and other teams with undefinable seasons a 12-seed is an artificial push to make play-in games relevant and until one of these programs makes a deep run into the tournament, it will remain this way. Let the deserving teams have higher seeds, let play-in game winners take their chances with a 16-seed and let the teams they beat eat cake, especially if it is a top seed.

Now that would be magical.

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