Mountain West Preview: Replacing NBA Talent

The long wait will soon be over when the first full slate of NCAA basketball games of the 2013-14 season will tip-off on Nov. 8. Some of our favorite players have moved on the ranks of professional athletes, new recruits have been polishing their games in gyms with recognizable logos on the court, and schools have switched conference allegiances. Through a series of conference previews, the BDD crew will do its best to prepare you for the next 4.5 months of collegiate hoops.

New Mexico's Kendall Williams will be the player to watch in the Mountain West this season. (denverpost.com)

Favorite: New Mexico
The Mountain West will be an interesting conference to watch this year as many of the top teams lost big-name players to the draft, but will still have firepower to compete for the crown. It could be crowded at the top, with UNLV losing Anthony Bennett but still having lots of talent, and Boise State, whom CBS Sports actually picked to win the conference. New Mexico may have lost Tony Snell, but the Lobos are returning senior Kendall Williams (team-high 13.5 points and five assists last year), who despite not having the recognition of Snell, was the Mountain West Player of the Year a year ago. UNM will also have a strong inside presence with Alex Kirk, a 7-footer who led the team in rebounding with 8.1 boards a game and was third on the team in scoring with 12.1 points per game. Both players were picked on the Mountain West Media Preseason All-Conference Team and could lead the Lobos to a third-straight regular-season conference title.


Darkhorse Team to Watch: Utah State
This is the first season for Utah State in the Mountain West after coming over from the Western Athletic Conference. The Aggies are picked to finish fifth in the conference media preseason poll, but before even looking at the team, Utah State has a weapon in the Dee Glen Smith Spectrum, which has been in the conversation for best home court advantages in college basketball. With this being the Aggies first year in the conference, many of these teams don't have much experience in that atmosphere. Utah State is also led by a talented group of seniors in Preston Medlin, Jarred Shaw and Spencer Butterfield. Medlin led the team in scoring with 16.3 ppg before breaking his wrist midway through the season. Shaw nearly averaged a double-double last year with 14.2 points and 8.4 rebounds and Butterfield also contributed 12.2 ppg and 6.6 rpg. If everyone remains healthy, this could be a dangerous team in conference play.


Player of the Year: Kendall Williams, New Mexico
As mentioned above, Williams was a stats leader for the Lobos even with Tony Snell getting all of the attention. He's the reigning player of the year, so this isn't exactly a going-out-on-a-limb pick, but with Snell gone, this looks to be Williams' team. Williams has proven he can do a little bit of everything, scoring 13.5 points, five assists and 3.5 rebounds per game. It is also easier for a player to win this award when he is at the top of the conference, and that should be the case for New Mexico.


Coach of the Year: Larry Eustachy, Colorado State
The coach of the year award doesn't just necessarily go to the coach of the best team. It can also go to the guy who did the most with little resources. Colorado State has lost nearly all of its resources. All five starters are gone, which means the top five leading scorers are also gone. Eustachy will have two talented freshmen guards in David Cohn and Carlton Hurst to help the team get better, but it is still a difficult task. If Colorado State can find itself in the top four in the conference at the end of the year, with the talent of teams around it, that's a coaching job worthy of coach of the year.


Newcomer of the Year: Christian Wood, UNLV
The Mountain West media writers have Wood's teammate Kendall Smith as the preseason newcomer of the year, but Wood can also be a big factor in the post for the Rebels. Wood was the No. 35-ranked recruit according to Rivals and with the departure of big man Anthony Bennett, Wood's 6-foot-10 frame could help UNLV in the post. 

 

Follow @BeatsDimesDrive on Twitter
Like Beats Dimes and Drives on Facebook

Draft Profile: Tony Snell's Leaning on Limitations

In the run-up to the 2013 NBA Draft on June 27, the BDD staff will be profiling several projected lottery picks and other draft entrants. Next up: Tony Snell.

Tony Snell: Catch. Shoot. Repeat. (USA Today Sports)

Position: Small Forward
College: New Mexico
Current Draft Express Prediction: No. 5 in second round, No. 35 overall to the Philadelphia 76ers (from New Orleans Hornets).

Synopsis: New Mexico had an earlier exit from the NCAA Tournament than most people predicted, but with the program's profile being higher than it has been in recent history, now was the right time for Tony Snell to enter the NBA Draft, especially since there was no guarantee the Lobos would have as much success if he returned for his senior season.

The most outstanding number to come out of Snell's combine workout was his 4.9 percent body fat measurement. Already slim at 6'7", 198 pounds, he is a bundle of muscles that can pass as a small forward in a non-power conference like the Mountain West, but his slight frame will be an issue at the NBA level if he doesn't add a significant amount of weight. Failing that, Snell works more as a shooting guard in the pros. He worked primarily off-ball with the Lobos, exhibiting a near-perfect and replicable shooting form with a textbook follow-through and a high release point that, along with his height and long arms (6'11.5" wingspan) would make it hard for opposing NBA two-guards to alter his shot. Pairing Snell with a willing facilitator would allow him to have an immediate impact on the game, particularly if he adapts quickly to the longer range of the NBA 3-point line. In his final year at New Mexico, Snell earned a 56 percent true shooting percentage by hitting 45.2 percent of two-pointers, 39 percent from long range and 84.3 percent from the free-throw line. He translated this into 16.3 points adjusted per 40 minutes. Given the chance to shoot, Snell has a quick and true release, making him a useful shooter if nothing else. 

Scouts are skeptical about Snell's ability to defend and rebound against higher caliber opponents, specifically because of his slenderness. Rebounding is particularly concerning, as he only averaged 3.7 defensive rebounds adjusted per 40 minutes. This will remain an issue if he is used as a forward. Questions also arise when speaking about Snell's ball-handling and pull-up shooting. Improving both will allow him to create his own shot, adding a new dimension to his game and making him more valuable to which ever team takes him in the draft. Used as is, Snell is primarily a catch-and-shoot threat. Whether standing still or receiving the ball on the run, as he did often when coming off picks as a Lobo, Snell is effective at finishing plays. He thrived in this role at New Mexico, executing 76 percent of his offensive over three years in catch-and-shoot situations, according Synergy Sports Technology.

Snell could certainly fall farther than his draft projection, though if he makes noticeable improvements in any of his weak areas -- either before the draft or throughout his rookie campaign -- he could be a steal for the right team. 

Quote to note: "[At New Mexico] I didn't get to show much of my rebounding and my ball-handling." - Snell on possible confinements of the college system in which he played.

Follow @BeatsDimesDrive on Twitter
Like Beats Dimes and Drives on Facebook

NCAA Tournament: Round of 64 Day 1 Recap

No. 14 Harvard pulled off the biggest upset of the night against No. 3 seed New Mexico. (thecrimson.com)

The first "official" day of the NCAA Tournament is in the books. It was a great day of basketball because, well, it was 10 hours of basketball. I'm not sure it's possible for the first Thursday of the NCAA Tournament to not be great, no matter what happens on the court.

Yet the offense wasn't great and it looked like there wouldn't be any of the major upsets that we're normally accustomed ... oh, hey Harvard, almost missed you. It took one of the final games of the night, but No. 14 Harvard upset No. 3 New Mexico, making many who had New Mexico advancing multiple rounds sobbing into their pillow before falling asleep and waking up the next morning hoping it was all a dream. Those Ivy School Madness-makers were the big story of the night, but here are a few other takeaways from the first day of the NCAA Tournament.

No first for a No. 16 … yet
Every No. 1 seed each year has to go into that first game wishing and praying it is not them who becomes the first top seed to lose to a No. 16 seed. It will forever live in the history books along with the embarrassment that it was you and your school to "choke" first. An athletic Southern team gave Gonzaga all it could handle Thursday bringing the thought up once again, but the Bulldogs were too strong down the stretch to be upset. However, with the increasing parity and athleticism found at some of these mid-major schools, it would not be surprising to see a No. 16 come away victorious for the first time in the next five years.

Runaway victories
Out of the 16 games played Thursday, 11 of them were decided by 10 points or more. Some of these scores are misleading as it was closer than the final score would indicate (Butler vs. Bucknell) but others are the opposite, as it was never really felt that close (Michigan St. vs. Valpo). In a tournament where the stage and momentum are great equalizers, games are usually pretty competitive, but Thursday there were plenty of cases where one team didn't show up or the other team just ran away with the game from the beginning. This was especially surprising in the No. 8/No. 9 matchups, where the quality of the teams should be fairly equal, yet Wichita State ran all over Pitt and Colorado State did the same to Missouri. It will be interesting to see if the margin is closer in the Friday games.

Close, but not close enough
Yes, most of the games were not that close, but a few teams brought fans to the edge of their seats, especially in the afternoon sessions. No. 11 St. Mary's battled back from a late deficit to having the final shot to win with just more than a second remaining, while No. 14 Davidson had a one-point lead on Marquette with four seconds left. In a month and tournament known for underdogs being immortalized in last-second greatness, both St. Mary's and Davidson fell short of advancing to the Round of 32. Instead it was Marquette with the end-game heroics to win. We're still waiting for that first buzzer-beater from a mid-major player who will be remembered and talked about from that point on.

Follow @BeatsDimesDrive on Twitter
Like Beats Dimes and Drives on Facebook

The Mountain West is UNLV's to Lose

The long wait will soon be over when the first official NCAA basketball game of the 2012-13 season will tip-off on Nov. 15. Some of our favorite players have moved on the ranks of professional athletes, new recruits have been polishing their games in gyms with recognizable logos on the court, and schools have switched conference allegiances. Through a series of conference previews, the BDD crew will do its best to prepare you for the next 4.5 months of collegiate hoops.

UNLV's Mike Moser is a giant in the Mountain West. (cfbsection.com)

 
Conference Champion:  UNLV

The Mountain West is top-heavy, as witnessed in the spring when four of its eight teams made NCAA tourney trips. With the conference realignment fray focused intently on football, the MWC remained relatively unscathed (well, aside from losing gridiron flagship TCU to the Big 12) and actually added two solid basketball schools in Fresno State and Nevada.

The Runnin' Rebels are a perennial entrant to the NCAA tournament, but this season may provide their best shot at snagging a conference championship and making postseason noise that has been absent in their recent forays. Head coach Dave Rice has put together a team that includes transfers from Pitt, USC and — pending a successful appeal — Connecticut. That's in addition to forward Mike Moser's second year in the program after transferring across state lines from UCLA and averaging a 14-point, 10.5-rebound double-double for the Rebs last season. Oh, and a Top 30 recruiting class according to Rivals.

There's firepower in Las Vegas this season. San Diego State and Fresno State brought in top-flight recruits (Winston Shepard and Robert Upshaw, respectively), but neither school can claim to have made a coup over Kentucky like UNLV's commitment from five-star big man Anthony Bennett.

Given his reputation, Rice should be able to make this team gel and use his frontcourt to compensate for, if not complement, any preseason questions about which first-year player will start point guard.

Dark horse Team to Watch: Colorado State

The Rams finished fourth in the MWC and made it into the bubble in time for Murray State to bounce them from the big dance last season, but after a nine-year drought and a 22 years without an at-large bid, Colorado State has to feel good.

They are still the number three or four (depending on where you place the depleted New Mexico Lobos) in what the national media could pigeonhole as a two-team conference, but Wes Eikmeier is back to lead the Rams' corps of guards after a first-team All-MWC season in which he averaged 15.6 points. Among the other important pieces returning is Pierce Hornung, who showed up in a big way with a 12-17 double-double at the NCAA tourney and is expected to nab rebounds at a clip rivaling his per-game average of 8.4 from 2011-12.

If the Rams' six seniors — including Hornung, Eikimeier and his backcourt brethren Dorian Green and resident facilitator Jesse Carr — are going to surge in conference play, 2012-13 offers the perfect storm of confidence, roster continuity and offensive efficiency (CSU's 47.6 field goal percentage was good for 25th in Divison-I competition last season).

The Rams' outside-in play is due to a lack of depth, which is less than ideal in a conference suddenly ripe with big men. The other question is whether new head coach Larry Eustachy can pick up where Tim Miles left off when he accepted a gig at the helm of Nebraska hoops. In the past, Eustachy had off-court issues not flattering of a coach, but his coaching prowess is validated, including a a turn with Southern Mississippi that took the Golden Eagles to the NCAA tourney in March.

Player of the Year: Mike Moser, UNLV

Moser is far and away the best player in the conference. One summer after his working his double-double magic, there is a distinct possibility that Moser eclipses those statistics as his fellow big men demand more attention in 2012-13. Shooting guard Anthony Marshall's presence will work against opponents running zone defenses, too, and should give Moser a few easier looks at the basket.

Newcomer of the Year:  Anthony Bennett, UNLV

Believe it or not, there are not a bevy of five-star recruits playing in the mid-major Mountain West. Bennett will share touches with the other scorers on the Runnin' Rebels' roster, but by no means will he be denied his opportunities. With respect to Moser, Bennett will be fed the ball until he defers. He didn't deny Coach Cal to meander around the western states. Bennett's the standard-bearer for all incoming freshmen in the conference.

Coach of the Year:  Steve Alford, New Mexico

This goes against all other pieces of conjecture here, but Alford's case is tough to argue. His Lobos have captured the MWC championship in three of the last four season (2009, 2010 and 2012) and his team's defense-first mindset will overwhelm lesser teams and at least challenge the conference's upper echelon. Minus graduated forward Drew Gordon and 7-foot true freshman Obij Aget, who suffered a knee injury, the pressure is on the Lobos' remaining big men. But if there's one person in the MWC that can be counted on to get the most out of his team, it's Steve Alford.


Follow @BeatsDimesDrive on Twitter