Who Will Be Next To Jump From Cinderella To Powerhouse?

Gonzaga was America's original "Cinderella" team, but now is a terrifying team to meet in March. (sportingnews.com)

Gonzaga started the idea of the mid-major "Cinderella" with an Elite 8 run in 1999. Now the Zags are a consistent top-25 team that is expected to do well in March.

Butler took it a step further with consecutive NCAA Tournament title game appearances under coach Brad Stevens and is continuing to take on a beat top 25 opponents. We've already discussed how good of a coach Stevens is, as now Butler is moving away from that Cinderella title to being a fixture at the top of the game every year. 

It's a tough job for a mid-major to maintain the kind of excellence it takes to become one of the big boys, with less funds and recognition. Many teams haven't been able to hold on after breaking into the limelight. Just look at Bucknell, Vermont or Hampton. We'll see if Norfolk St. or Lehigh are one-hit wonders after last season's shockers. Factors like coaching and personnel are obviously involved and if your breakout coach leaves for a bigger school, your dreams of being the next Gonzaga could end in a second.

Still, Butler will likely be the last team to make the jump in performance level and credibility, so here are a couple more schools in the running to be next in line.

Favorite:

VCU: The Rams hammered their way into the spotlight in 2007 with a dramatic 79-77 win over Duke in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. They only reached the tournament one more time in the next three years (2009) but then had the breakout year in 2011. VCU scrapped its way to the Final Four before losing to who else but Butler. The Rams were back in it again last year, nearly losing to Indiana (63-61) in the second round. The Rams have had the big wins to get themselves known and then made an impressive run to make the nation believers. As long as Shaka Smart is the coach, VCU has a good chance to keep this going. They probably need two or three more tournament appearances and another Sweet 16 birth — as well as some huge regular-season wins — to move into Butler range.


In The Running:

Creighton: Creighton benefits from playing in a conference (Missouri Valley) known for producing talented, mid-major basketball programs. The BlueJays have been a mainstay in the NCAA Tournament since 1999, making the tournament eight times during that span, including five seasons in a row from 1999-2003. Creighton has advanced to the second round three times since 1999, yet can't seem to find a way into the second weekend. With potential National Player of the Year candidate Doug McDermott leading the way, this could be the year Creighton breaks through to the Sweet 16.

Davidson: If Stephen Curry could have stayed at Davidson for more than four years, Davidson could already be in line with Butler. The Wildcats reached the NCAA Tournament each year from 2006-2008, with the climax being Curry leading the 2008 squad to the Elite 8, where it was narrowly defeated by soon-to-be national champion Kansas. Bob McKillop has rebounded from the loss of that great 2008 senior class and is looking to make a second-straight tournament appearance this year. Davidson has been able to recruit pretty well, schedules big-name opponents early in the season and plays in a fairly weak conference, so the blueprint is there for the Davidson name to grow, but the Wildcats still need to go first.



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Atlantic 10: Surging for a Season with 16 Teams

The long wait will soon be over when the first official NCAA basketball game of the 2012-13 season will tip-off on Nov. 15. Some of our favorite players have moved on the ranks of professional athletes, new recruits have been polishing their games in gyms with recognizable logos on the court, and schools have switched conference allegiances. Through a series of conference previews, the BDD crew will do its best to prepare you for the next 4.5 months of collegiate hoops.

Kwamain Mitchell could find A-10 gold with St. Louis. (Matt Brown/SLUBillikens.com)

Conference Champion: St. Louis

The Atlantic 10 is deep.With 16 teams, it has the biggest roster of teams in Division-I competition that will disappear when Charlotte and Temple leave next summer. But this year, size and talent-wise, the A-10 is the mid-major equivalent of the Big East. Traditional conference powers Xavier and Temple will be in the title hunt despite with their diminished power. Saint Louis can't be counted out of the mix after an NCAA tournament loss to Michigan State in which the Billikens were a popular upset pick. Butler and VCU — new additions from the Horizon and CAA, respectively — are automatically top-tier teams, too, after the memorable postseason runs both teams have made since 2010.

All of these teams are legitimate contenders to win the A-10 and there's no sure-fire formula to calculate a champion in October, but it's hard to bet against the Billikens, a team ranked 10th nationally in defensive efficiency in 2011-12. The loss of forward Brian Conklin marks a rare case in which little drop-off should be seen after the departure of a team's leading scorer. He averaged 13.9 points per game, just 1.5 more than Kwamain Mitchell.

Aside from Conklin, SLU returns every player important to last season's squad. The only potential detriment to the Billikens' success is the absence of head coach Rick Majerus as he sits out the season to focus on his ongoing cancer treatment. Interim head coach Jim Crews is familiar with the system in place after being an assistant in 2011-12, though, and his 24 years of head coaching experience could motivate the team if Majerus' health concerns somehow do not.

Dark horse Team to Watch: Saint Joseph's

Rarely can you call a team that posted a top-five conference finish in the season prior a dark horse, but Saint Joseph's is just that in a pool so deep. Every single player from last year's roster has returned.

Let that sink in: Every. Single. Player.

Even the conference's standing Defensive Player of the Year (C.J. Aiken — an NBA prospect) is back for his junior season. That kind of continuity can push a team past a more talented squad. The thing is, the Hawks went 20-14 and were a bubble team for most of the spring. Barring unforeseen circumstances, it should be safe to pencil Saint Joseph's into an NCAA tournament bracket right now and wonder if an A-10 championship precedes that bid.

Player of the Year: Chaz Williams, Massachusetts

The Minutemen's guard made an immediate impact upon taking the court last year, having sat out the 2011-12 season after making a post-freshman year transfer from Hofstra. Williams proceeded to average 16.9 points, 6.2 assists, 4.4 rebounds and 2.2 steals per game. He's the centerpiece of a team that could make a push toward the top of the conference and, if he can get his turnovers under control and continue on the trajectory he began last season, he'll be an easy pick for A-10 POY.

Newcomer of the Year: Jordan Burgess, VCU

Burgess is a wing who will make noise on glass and outwork bigger opponents in order to do it. His offense comes from the corners and along the baseline. VCU head coach Shaka Smart should work his brand of magic with the 6'5" forward. The things that will hamper his first-year peers — availability of playing time, offensive systems and so on — should not hamper Burgess, as VCU's top prospect is projected to find big minutes at the 4-spot.

Coach of the Year: Shaka Smart, VCU

Another crowded category, another bundle of candidates that should be worthy by the end of conference play. The roster stability at Saint Louis and Saint Joseph's potentially excludes Crews and Hawks head coach Phil Martelli from the running. If Butler has a bad year with its least heralded team in the 2010's, Brad Stevens is out, too. With his team on the upswing during its inaugural campaign, though, and projecting as a title favorite in a conference more difficult than the CAA, Shaka Smart winning COY is as close to a sure thing as there is in the A-10 this season.


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